It looks like the market is bullish again. Can someone with a double PhD in economics & finance who also holds a CFA, FRM and CPA license, please explain why the market (spy) is not at $350 already?

Bless your heart.

It looks like the market is bullish again. Can someone with a double PhD in economics & finance who also holds a CFA, FRM and CPA license, please explain why the market (spy) is not at $350 already?

Bless your heart.

Greed is good - G.K

I wonder how we could weigh these variables to explain the market.

SPY % = .30(stupidity) + .60(greed) + .10(fear)

Why are you assuming that the:

- proper model is linear (e.g., that there are no synergies)
- weights must add to one

?

Iâ€™m sure he was meaning to imply that a standardized coefficient regression method was employed.

Interesting word choice.

Is it?

It is.

But why?

Youâ€™re using â€śstandardizedâ€ť to mean what is properly known as â€śaffineâ€ť (Affine combination - Wikipedia).

Itâ€™s interesting because:

- Regression models need not be linear, and
- Even when a linear regression model is specified, itâ€™s rare to add the additional constraint that the linear combination be an affine combination (i.e., that the weights or slope coefficients sum to unity)

One might argue, reasonably, that a linear regression model is, somehow, more standard than a nonlinear regression model. Iâ€™m not sure that you could find evidence to support the argument that an affine model is more standard than a not-necessarily-affine model.

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Youâ€™re so concerned about the affine specifics!

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Guilty as charged.

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Iâ€™d honestly work for you.